Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
